Pes 2013 Dt 09
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Pes 2013 Dt 09
At first glance the changes made to Pro Evolution Soccer 2013 might seem like a bunch of slight, almost superficial tweaks; you'd be hard pressed to find one standout feature from its long list of AI improvements, new tactical moves, or graphical revamps. And yet, on the pitch, it's one of the most rewarding football games out there. Where its predecessors struggled to find a place on the current generation of consoles--often simply playing catch-up with its competitors--PES 2013 embraces its past and plays a wonderfully technical and supremely satisfying game of football. No, it still doesn't come close to matching FIFA on features or graphical splendor, but when it comes to those unforgettable moments of edge-of-your-seat sporting drama, PES 2013 is sublime.
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Two economists at the NY Fed (Duarte and Rosa) recently released a working paper on the ERP. This paper follows a previous paper they published last year, which reached similar (bullish) conclusions. Both papers conclude that the ERP was at an historically high level in 2013. Further, the authors conclude that the ERP is a valid tool for estimating equity market value, and that ERP tools are superior to PE-related tools such as Robert Shiller's CAPE.
You really can't value stocks through the cycle without reference to bond yields. Otherwise, we would just be looking at PE ratios and be thinking that stocks were expensive when rates were low (2002, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014). Bottom line: ignore the PE and ignore the cyclically-adjusted PE (the CAPE). Only look at the ERP (earnings yield minus the risk-free rate) or -- my preferred index -- the ratio of the ERP to the risk-free rate. Equities can only be valued by reference to interest rates.
There is broad agreement across models that the ERP has reached historical heights [as of mid-2013] even when the models are substantially different from each other and use more than one hundred different economic variables. Our preferred estimator places the one-year-ahead ERP in July 2013 at 14.5%, the highest level in fifty years and well above the 10.5% that was reached during the financial crisis in 2009.
The current high levels of the ERP are unusual in that we are not currently in a recession and we have just experienced an extended period of high stock returns, with 60% returns since July 2010 and almost 20% since the beginning of 2013. During previous periods, the ERP has always decreased during periods of sustained high realized returns. It is unusual for the ERP to be at its present level in the current stage of the business cycle, especially when expectations are that it will continue to rise over the next three years.
This work was supported by the European Union (ERC-AdG2014 HEPCIR #671231 (TFB and YH) and H2020 HEPCAR #667273, ERC PoC-HEPCAN #862551 to TFB). ARC, Paris and Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire, Strasbourg (TheraHCC and TheraHCC2.0 IHUARC IHU201301187 and IHUC201901299 TFB), the Foundation of the University of Strasbourg and Roche Institute (HEPKIN), the Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le Sida et les Hépatites Virales (2017/1633), the US Department of Defense (W81XWH-16-1-0363 to TFB and YH), the Cancéropôle du Grand-Est, the National Institutes of Health (DK099558 and T32CA073145-20 to SL, R01CA233794 to YH and TFB, NCI 1R21CA209940-01A1 to TFB), AMED (19fk0210020h0003 to KC), AASLD Foundation (Pinnacle Research Award) and the Massachusetts General Hospital Department of Surgery (KKT) and the Cancer Prevention & Research Institute of Texas RR180016 to YH. This work has been published under the framework of the LABEX ANR-10-LABX-0028_HEPSYS and PLAN CANCER 2014-2019 HCCMICTAR and benefits from a funding from the state managed by the French National Research Agency as pa